It's time we focus on the Phoenix real estate market. Sometimes I get caught up with social and political happenings. Not today though we will take a look at home sales and the real estate market in Phoenix's 85028 zip code. This update is for July, 2009.
For those of you who read our blog regularly, you know I am a big fan of the 85028 region. The Phoenix Mountain Preserve borders to the south and provides a host of outdoor activities with its mountains and 17 miles of trails. The area is central to most every part of town... Scottsdale is a few miles to the east and the 51 freeway makes short work of getting downtown or to the airport. Shopping in the area is good with Costco, Trader Joes, and PV mall just minutes away as well as a bevy of good restaurants and other retailers.
I like the homes in this area as well. Most are a bit older and have charm... not your row after row of look-a-like stucco shelters. There are horse properties, luxury homes, mid-century moderns, rach style and much more.
Real estate wise, the 85028 region is doing better than many parts of town. The distress meter, provided by the good folks at the Cromford Report, is moving towards the green. This meter points out the affect of bank-owned homes on the market. As you can imagine, most of the Greater Phoenix market is deeply in the red; not 85028 though.
Lender owned homes currently comprise only 7% of active single family home inventory and these foreclosed properties accounted for only 31% of the sales this past month. As you may know, lender-owned properties have accounted for over 80% of the sales valley-wide this past quarter according to ARMLS figures. This stat is very important since bank owned homes generally drive down market value.
OTHER GOOD NEWS FOR THE 85028 AREA:
- The number of active listings has been falling each month. This is a good thing indeed.
- Pending listing (those in escrow) has risen dramatically. Yeah!!
- The days on market (how long a home has been for sale) is falling.
- Luxury home prices are holding stronger than expected. There were two luxury homes in the mountain preserve area that sold for prices above 2005 values according to ARMLS.
- Overall sales numbers are up from a year ago.
- Trustee sales have not spiked upward. (See graph below)
THE NOT SO GOOD NEWS:
- Home prices are still falling... just not as quickly as last year and Q1 2009.
- Preforeclosures are on the rise. We've been seeing a steady 5% rise in homes being offered as short sales.
- Foreclosures are on the rise as well.
The graph to the right indicates letters of default (sent when a homeowner is behind on his/her payment) have gone up a bit... the green line.
Conclusions: 85028 appears to be outperforming much of the general Phoenix market. Most of the sales are in the under $300K range; nothing too surprising there. Watch the letter of default notices as they are a strong indicator of future foreclosures and soft home prices.
HOME BUYERS: There are some good deals still available. A number of the properties are short sales, so you may have to be patient. Bank owned homes are much easier to buy, however, many of the normal sellers are pricing competitively these days.
HOME SELLERS: The bank owned homes have really affected home values everywhere. The annual median price is just 66% of the peak value a few years ago. Try to be realistic about market value in today's market. In most cases, the price a home sold for 6 months ago has nothing to do with today's values. Remember, unless you have a cash buyer, you'll be constrained by the appraisal value.
Thanks for reading Urban Life and look for upcoming reports on the downtown and central Phoenix real estate markets. If you would like to search for homes in 85028 or all of Phoenix, simple click on the highlighted text.
Gene Urban
The Urban Team at Realty Executives
602-234-5777
