Urban Life

THE NOBLE BEAST -- A REVIEW OF THIS LOCAL FIRST MEMBER

This week we drew the name Nobel Beast from our Local First Arizona members hat. A short drive to 10th Street & Camelback and I was at this specialty pet shop.

I was greeted by Alison Chandler, one of the proprietor of this distinctive pet food and supplies store. Alison and her business partner Marsha Mardock, have quite a shop here. Pet owners are treated to a rich variety of natural foods, eco-friendly toys and supplies for their cats and dogs.

Alison says the idea for the shop was born out of the fact she had to drive miles to Scottsdale to get natural foods for her pets. She recognized a void in the central Phoenix market and started dreaming of her own pet food store. She approached her long time fiend Marsha who had a background in marketing and the Noble Beast was born. They opened their doors this last November and already have a large pack of happy customers...humans love the place too.

I asked Alison how she choose her products. She said that she looks for foods that use human grade meats, pesticide/chemical/hormone free and yummy to the the dogs and cats. They offer a number of products aimed at helping pets with allergies and itching problems too. I found they carried Solid Gold dog food, a food holistic veterinarian Judy Stolz liked to recommend, so I got some for Fred the dog.

The Noble Beast is more than just a place to buy natural foods, grooming supplies, remedies and toys... it's a hang out. Last  month they held their first Doggie Ice Creme Social. One of their vendors brought in Yougund doggie yogurt, Cold Stone Creamery supplied the humans with ice creme and they raised several hundred bucks for AZ Rescue. Other events include their Saturday Dog Behavior classes put on by Carol Mitchell and AZ Rescue drops by on Saturday's as well with a few of their cats and dogs looking for a home.

The Noble Beast is a classic example of why we need locally owned businesses. Box stores can't provide the intimacy, pride, and distinctiveness a place like Alison's & Marsha's. After just one visit I found myself saying... YEAH, I found my pet store. No wonder Phoenix Magazine calls it the Valley's Coolest Pet Store. I think you will too.

The Noble Beast
1005 E. Camelback Rd.
Phoenix , AZ 85014
602-265-4223
www.noblebeastpets.com

Thanks fo reading our posts and for your feedback too.

Gene Urban
The Urban Team
Realty Executives

MARICOPA COUNTY PROPERTY TAX UPDATE

My brother Ron and I have the distinctive honor of managing the Realty Executives office in North Central Phoenix (AKA Realty Executives Center Pointe.) Among our duties is putting together educational content for our twice-a-month agent meetings. We really like that part of the job.

This past week we had Keith Russell, the Maricopa County Tax Assessor, come to our office. He was a lot of fun and very educational. He delved into the history of property tax collection and gave us a better understanding of the convoluted system our legislature adopted in the 80's.

We have $10.00 bucks for the first person who can tell us who performed property tax collection in Arizona before statehood? Not the person, but the job title.  Just email us with your answer and we'll announce the winner when we get one.

One thing I did not understand is that the amount we pay does not necessarily go down if the value of our homes goes down. Home valuation simply determines how much of the total tax "pie" we will pay. In other words, if the budget increases there will be more taxes due and our individual obligations will also rise. If you click on this link you will go to the Q & A section of the tax assessor's web site and they have more detailed explanations.

Just to make things more confusing, the valuations sent to us each year actually reflect the values from about 2 years prior. Therefore, do not expect to see large changes when you get your next tax bill. You will see lower home values reflected for the next few years.  This delayed reporting is something that bothers Mr. Russell. I understand it is an issue he is raising with the legislature in hopes to have some changes made. His job mandates that he carry out the laws that are in place, even when they are stupid.

With that said, we do have the preliminary valuation changes for 2009 listed City by City for your review. Buckeye and Avondale have the greatest reduction in valuations while Gila Bend, Carefree and Paradise Valley have increases. Click on the picture below to see a larger view of the document.

That's it for this week. Hope you have a great weekend. We're going out looking at houses.

Gene Urban
The Urban Team
Realty Executives
www.UrbanTeamAZ.com

By the way, Keith Russell is running for another term. I found him to be respectful, knowledgeable and darn passionate about his job. He'll get my vote.

GENE URBAN ON CHANNEL 12 NEWS

I got a call from from Melissa Blasius, a reporter with Channel 12 News, yesterday asking if I could talk with her about the foreclosure market in the Greater Phoenix area. Melissa and her camera man arrived at the Realty Executives Center Pointe office at about 6:00 and we chatted it up.

The news piece aired on the 10:00 news on Channel 12. (Click Here To See The Video Clip.) The segment talked about the trickle-down effect foreclosures are are having on higher end markets such as Scottsdale and Paradise Valley. She wanted my take on this phenomenon and how it was affecting the North Central Phoenix market.

I thought Melissa Blasius did a good job. In the blog world we can take as much time as we want to explain a complex issue. Melissa had but a minute or so to delve into the subject. In that small space of time she presented a good picture of the problem and didn't take what I said out of content.

My take was simply that the foreclosure problem can not be taken as a global issue in the Valley. Some areas are heavily affected while others are only marginally involved. North Central, the area we discussed in depth, is one of the less influenced regions. Looking at the 85020, 85012 and 85013 zip codes we see the foreclosure numbers are small. Over the past 4 months the number of foreclosures, based on numbers provided by First American Title Company, amount to less than 1% of the total number throughout the valley. In other words, while we have been seeing total foreclosures in the 1300 per week range, N. Central may have 7-10 on any given week.

Melissa asked why I thought certain areas are less distressed than others. I believe it is due to the demographics of different areas. Newer subdivisions, those built in the 2000-2005 range are going to be more vulnerable due to the lack of equity and the potential for buyers having secured poor loan products. The nicer older neighborhoods have more stability; many owners either own their homes outright or have high equity positions; these folks can often tough it out better.

All in all it was a good time and good news piece.

Gene Urban
The Urban Team
Realty Executives

www.UrbanTeamAZ.com

LOCAL FIRST MEMBER REVIEW... THE AUTO SHOP PHOENIX

Readers of Urban Life know we are members of Local First Arizona and like to support locally owned and operated businesses in the area. If you own a local business and are not a member, we'd love to tell you about the organization... it does great work for our community. Click here to email us.

Today I visited The Auto Shop at 901 N. Central Avenue and visited with Wendy Miller, the marketing director, service consultant and all around detail person at the shop.

I had not been there before, but Mark Salem from the Under the Hood show on KTAR says great things about them.  My initial surprise was the size of the facility. It's much larger than I anticipated and includes lots of fenced parking for cars, a huge-clean service bay, offices and more.

I introduced myself to Wendy who has been with the shop for 11 years and is an ASE certified service advisor. She proudly took me on a tour of the place a gave me a bit of the firm's history.

Dan Dumbauld, the owner, will be celebrating 30 years in business this coming year... they must be doing something right!  Right at the Auto Shop includes ASE certified mechanics, 24 month-24,000 mile warranty on service, 24 hour in-house towing, and free local shuttle service to and from your office/home... not to mention doing great work and solving problems a lot of shops have trouble with.

I really like the place. The staff was upbeat, the shop was clean and orderly and I've found that Mark Salem's recommended shops stand behind their work. They are AAA approved, a NAR member, accredited by the BBB and hold an ASE Blue Seal of approval. Plus, they are a Local First Arizona member.

If you've been there, let us know about your experience... this is an interactive site and we welcome opinions in the comment section below.

Gene Urban
The Urban Team
602-234-5777
www.UrbanTeamAZ.com

STOP NEIGHBORHOOD THEFT

Homeowners and real estate agents unite!  Many neighborhoods are suffering from the gutting of vacant homes. As agents, we have seen homes stripped of cabinets, lighting, doors, pool equipment, AC systems and more. Sometimes this is done by frustrated/mad homeowners losing their house. It is also being done by opportunistic thieves.

As homeowners and agents we need to try and put a stop to this activity. Gutted homes destroy property values in the entire neighborhood, creates blight and heightens criminal activity.

It is high time we, as homeowners and real estate agents, get involved in creating a solution. I would ask that all agents inform the surrounding homes if you have a vacant listing. Advise these people to be on the alert for suspicious behavior. Some of these crooks pose as bank representatives contracted by the bank to clearout the home. Banks do not do this, thieves do. Advise the neighbors to call the police immediately if they see trucks, cranes (they use cranes to remove AC units) and strangers removing items from a vacant home. Please advise them not to interviene directly, leave that to law enforcement.

If the neighborhood has a WATCH program, put together a special meeting to advise the homeowners of the problem. I am sure many real estate agents would be happy to provide a list of vacant listed properties and update that list as new homes come on the market.

The future of our neighborhood and our personal home values are at risk. Together we can make a difference!

Gene Urban
The Urban Team
Realty Executives
www.UrbanTeamAZ.com

HOUSING REBOUND THOUGHTS

CNN Money had an interesting piece on how to spot a rebound in the housing market. Click here to read. Amanda Gengler, the writer, suggests we watch a number of factors to determine market viability of a region. She also reminds us that not all cities, towns and areas are being effected equally. Certainly we are seeing this in the Greater Phoenix market.

The factors she suggests we watch include:

1. Local Job Market: The more jobs created, the higher the demand for homes and faster recovery.
2. Housing Inventory Rates: This is a basic supply & demand stat shows us the months of inventory on the market based on active listings, new listing numbers and sales figures. Traditionally, we like to see inventory numbers in the 6 month range.
3. Home Price Stability: Are prices falling, stable or rising.
4. Cost to Own verses Rent: Some buyers look at the cost of ownership verses rent and wait to buy until it is more optimal.

So what do our numbers tell us? 

Let's start with the local job market. A recent article in the Business Journal tells us that our job growth rate is falling. In 2006 we were ranked near or at the top for job growth. By March of this year we had tumbled down to 46th place among American cities. Much of this is believed due to the slump in the housing market. However, we still have strong job growth relative to the Nation and job growth is a regional issue. Certainly, Scottsdale does not have the same job issues as many west valley cities. It will be important to look at job figures over the Summer to see where the trend is moving and what areas are being most effected.

ARMLS stats on months of inventory are declining. During the months of October-February, we saw inventories in the 16 month range. In June the numbers dropped to 10 months. This is a valley wide statistic and can be a bit deceiving. Some areas are seeing the rates drop into the ideal range, 6 months, while other areas such as Paradise Valley are seeing over three years of inventory mounting. The general statistic does, however, indicate an overall drop... a good thing!

Home prices are still falling in general. The graph below shows the average home price figures across the Valley. They are dropping and please remember this picture is drawn with a wide brush. The same graph for parts of Phoenix and Scottsdale show price stability and even growth in some cases. However, the numbers for the region are still falling.

The last figure they advise watching is the cost to own verses rent. If we look at the stats provided by the National Association of Realtors we'll see Phoenix has an affordability ratio of 19.0%. The ideal number is 16% or below. Ron and I believe this number is likely wrong as the radical increase in bank owned cheap homes has likely not been factored. The one area the real estate market has been excelling in is the under $200,000 price point. Many of these buyers are former renters who are seizing the opportunity.

Conclusions: Based on the above criteria we can see that the Greater Phoenix market is not out of the woods. However, I must emphasize that this is broad brush analysis. A strong, knowledgeable Realtor can help inform you about areas that are performing well. This is a market where savvy buyers will make fortunes. We saw it during the S&L crisis of the 80's and we will look back and see it in this market.

Gene Urban
The Urban Team
www.UrbanTeamAZ.com

BASEBALL IS GOOD NEWS FOR THE VALLEY

We seldom write about areas outside of Central Phoenix, Paradise Valley and Scottsdale, but sometimes news from other areas helps all the Valley.

The Cincinnati Red's have inked  out a deal to start spring training in Goodyear, AZ. joining the Cleveland Indians in Cactus League play.

This is exciting for our area. Spring league baseball brings many pluses to Greater Phoenix including economic growth, future residents, and just plain fun.

Cactus League baseball has become an important part of our heritage and brand. It all began in 1951 when Yankee co-owner Del Webb orchestrated a deal to have his team play in his backyard while overseeing his growing real estate empire. The Chicago Cubs came to town and played two games against the Yankees. While here, the Cubs struck a deal with Dwight Patterson, a Mesa rancher, to play their spring ball in Mesa.

Today, we get to enjoy baseball with many teams including the Angels, Cubs, D-Backs, Rockies, Royals, Brewers, Padres, Giants, Mariners, Rangers and Indians. Much of this success is due to former governor Rose Mofford who took a stand against rival Florida by helping pass legislation key to Cactus League growth.

Our region is greatly benefited by Cactus League play. In 2007 an estimated 1.31 million fans enjoyed the festivities and spent a whopping $300 million. When we consider the revenues from hotel bed taxes, airport fees, gas taxes, general spending and fees paid by the teams, we are talking real money.

In addition, our State is seen by fans across American who are attracted by the great weather and the general fun of baseball. Not a bad image to put out there, especially when times are tough.

Thanks to all who have and do make Cactus League Baseball a reality in our towns.

Gene Urban
The Urban Team

Getting Around Phoenix

Steve Belt, one of the Valley's prolific bloggers wrote a great piece on getting around town. He provides great info on how the streets are named and aligned. It's worth taking a look. Click Here

Market Trends for Zip Code 85028

Since I live in the 85028 zip code I have a personal stake is the performance of that market. As real estate agents we know each subdivision and certainly every zip code in Maricopa county has its own sales characteristics.

With that in mind, I offer a little of my insight into the 85028 zip code.  The graph below shows units sold and average sales price for the past 1 year. As you can see, the average sales price dropped after the gloomy mortgage news last Summer... where didn't prices fall? Since then the variations in average sales price have remained fairly sane with a bit of a burst in March, traditionally a strong sales month, yet pretty solid over time.

The number of units sold rose in March & April as well. This is normal as these are among the best months to sell a home in our beautiful Valley. I didn't graph the average sold to asked ratio but these numbers have been holding very solid in the 94% range. Sold to Ask Ratio (S/A) is the percentage difference between what a homeowner is asking for the home and the actual sales price.

My take on this data is that the 85028 zip code has not felt the crunch many other parts of the valley have. Why is this so? The answer may lie in the foreclosure numbers. During the months of March, April, May there were just a couple of foreclosures noted in this zip code (foreclosure data provided by First American Title.) Even in Mid-June when zip codes like 85031 had 24 foreclosures or 85339 had 31 we saw only 1 foreclosure in 85028.

My personal feeling is the 85028 zip will probably out-perform the market this coming year. Like all areas the area saw some ugly price drops this past year, yet I believe the worst has been seen and a pretty bright light is burning at the end of the tunnel.

Until our next post.

Gene Urban
The Urban Team
www.urbanteamaz.com

LIGHT RAIL TESTING IN PHOENIX

Downtown Phoenix will see it's first light rail car today as testing for the line continues.

I for one am very happy to see light rail becoming a reality. Even naysayers are becoming converts as the rise in gas prices makes alternative travel more appealing.

Speaking of appealing, some of the rail stops are pretty cool looking, don't you think. Not as rich and amazing as the underground in Russia... see picture below, but pleasing to the senses. Only thing they really need along the line is more trees.

Ron & I have talked about contacting the City to see if people can host celebratory parties at the various rail stops on opening day. Maybe a different theme party at each one tying in the feel of the neighborhood near the stop; maybe involving local business owners so riders know where to get a good cup of java, copies made and such.

If you would like to be part of this plan, let me know, Gene's Email, and we'll see if we can make this happen.

Gene Urban
www.UrbanTeamAZ.com