Urban Life

Housing Index May Be Good News

We thought you might find this observation interesting.  Here is an indication of where we might head next. Notice after the bounce in the housing index (Home builders) back up to 2/1 we are back on a sell signal for housing and will most likely test the lows again. 

The housing index normally leads residential real estate by about 6 months. Prices should rebound over the next few months but if this index does not hold the lows of January, prices will most likely start to decline again for residential real estate .

Click on the graph to enlarge

This information was provided by our good friend and financial analyst ........ We can't put his name here because of SEC compliance issues. However, if you would like to talk to him, drop us an email and we'll give you his contact info.

Renters.. Beware of Landlord Scams

An interesting article in the Arizona Republic today tauts the benefits to renters in our current real estate market. Click here to read the piece.

Of note is the cautionary statement regarding making sure the home you are planning on renting is not in foreclosure. In a good world landlords would not rent a house they are about to loose. In reality, some people will do anything to try and stay afloat including lie, cheat and steal from a prospective tenant. The scam is pretty simple, rent you the house, take a deposit and walk away from everyone. If the homeowner files bankruptcy, the renter has few options to recover the money.

Renters beware is what we advise. The AZ Republic article gives some sage advice on exactly how to protect yourself. You may want to hire a private investigator to run a check on the property and it's owners. Sure it will cost a few bucks, but certainly not near what you could loose if caught in a scam.

TIPS ON SELLING YOUR HOME

Just read through a piece from the National Association of Realtors on selling your home. (Click here to see the article yourself) They had a number of good thoughts worth reading if you are planning on selling a home.

The article talks about 5 areas of concern.  The first is titled "Contingency Period." In a normal or hot market we often accept an offer that is contingent on the sale of another property. In our current market this may be hazardous. The average time to sell a home is upwards of 3-4 months. If you accept an offer with a sales contingency you are effectively taking your home off the market for several months. During that time period you can not take another offer and can only wait patiently for the other home to sell. We usually feel there are too many risks and factors that do not favor the home seller to accept a contingency offer in a slow market. There are some exceptions to this rule and we'd be happy to talk about them if you want.

The second concern raised is "Closing Date." The author suggests keeping closing periods under two months. We concur with this position. There are too many variables that can raise their ugly heads on extended closing periods. The financing of the home is among the biggest. Loan locks generally lapse after 30 days and can result in the buyer not qualifying for the purchase. Many other factors suggest keeping the closing period in the 30 to 45 days and that is what we recommend.

The article goes on to talk about repairs, lender approval and being flexible. The last thought is very important in a soft market. As a home seller in the greater Phoenix market, you have seen your property values drop and are probably pretty frustrated. All we can say is try to be patient and flexible. The high home prices are gone, it's just the way it is.  There are loads of homes on the market and savvy buyers are waiting for the best deal and often getting it. The successful home seller is the one who make their home the most attractive one among the many choices.

Gene Urban & Ron Urban
The Urban Team at Realty Executives

For more information about buying a home in Arizona... click here

What Happened To Mortage Rates?

I don't know if you watched the bond market yesterday and maybe heard around the office that rates had a significant jump yesterday.  Part of the Bond Market is Mortgage Back Securities, when Mortgage Backed Securities are up, mortgage rates go down, when Mortgage Backed Securities go down, mortgage rates go up. Here is what happened:

Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher (nickname: "Loose Lips") was speaking in Mexico City.   Here is a little back ground first.  Bonds hate inflation and cutting the Fed Funds and Discount Rate can be inflationary.  Richard Fisher was against the Jan 30th .50bp cut and made these following comments yesterday:

My dissenting vote last week was simply a differencence of opinion about how ar and how fast we might re-spike the monetary punchbowl.. given that I had yet to see a mitigation in inflation and inflationary expectations from their current high levels, and that I believe the steps we had already taken would be helpful in mitigating the downside risk to growth once they took full effect, I simply did not feel it was the proper time to support additional monetary accommodations.

He went on to say: Monetary policy acts with a lag.  I liken to a good single malt whiskey or perhaps truly great tequila:  It takes time before you feel its full effect.  The Fed has to be very careful now to add just the right amount of stimulus to the punchbowl without mixing in the potential to juice up inflation once the effect of the new punch kicks in.

His somewhat unusual comments about inflation didn't sit well with the Bond market, and sparked the sharp sell off. 

Today Bonds are now working to regain some ground.  Hopefully we can gain back over the next few weeks some of the losses from yesterday.

Have a great Friday!

Judy Giel
Branch Manager
First Horizon Home Loans
602-667-4910

Chinese New Year & Marketing... a Claudia b perspective

Our good friend Claudia Bullmore has done it again... combine history, sociology and modern marketing techniques. As real estate agents we see this information as being valuable when working with potential buyers of our client's homes in the Phoenix, Scottsdale and other Arizona cities. Whatever your business, you will be glad you read this post.

February 7th marks the beginning of the Year of the Rat. According to Chinese tradition this means a year of wealth and business opportunity. I hope your company is in good position to take advantage of this auspicious time. Have you adapted your marketing strategies to the changing economic and market conditions? Is your company behaving like a dinosaur or a rat? There are reasons why rats have survived and the dinosaurs went extinct. Rats are resourceful, adaptable and know how to survive the harshest of conditions. If you want to hear about strategies that will benefit your company, read on:

Three Tips for reaching your customers better in the Year of the Rat:

1. Generating quality customers that stay, pay and refer, involve giving them a memorable experience. How are you making your service a truly memorable experience?

2. One of the biggest mistakes most companies make in their marketing is that they talk too much about themselves. Look at a company’s website and see where the focus is. Be sure your messages are about the customer. Answer the question: How will you help them succeed?

3. Speak to your audience realizing that each generation is motivated very differently. Below are qualities that mark different generations:

Silent Generation: 1935-1945

Values: traditionalist, establishment, risk adverse

Strategy: radio, TV, specific magazines & newspapers

Call to action (CTA): free consults, information

Needs: standardization, consistency, security

Baby Boomers: 1945-1964

Values: hard work, focus on health & fitness, finances, family centered

Strategy: radio, websites, specific magazines

CTA: Strong call to action, this group will pay for quality, put in guarantees

Needs: Health, holistic, financial advisors, stress reduction, travel

Generation X:    1964-1976

Values: feeling special, individualists, pleasure, curiosity, love to spend

Strategy: radio, websites, reality TV, referrals, non-advertising methods

CTA: The message is everything! Make them an irresistible offer to act fast

Needs: lifestyle, quality, research, fun, easy

Echo Boomers (AKA Gen Y)  1976-1994

Values: collaborators, integrity, authentic, honesty

Strategy: text message, website, my space, chat rooms, radio

CTA: Loyalty, customer service, no fear, live person

Needs: relationships, collaboration, trust, straight talk.

Claudia Bullmore, Chief Strategist

SKY Marketing

www.skymarketingaz.com

602-909-0157

Contact SKY Marketing for more information regarding this month’s featured Generational Marketing Program. We offer three concise sessions that identify your primary generational audience and analyze your marketing messages so they generate better results faster.

The Big Game -- A Real Estate Commentary

Just read an essay by Jim Sexton, a real estate broker in the Greater Phoenix market. The article, entitled The Big Game, asks us to look at Arizona's real estate market as one of the most important BIG Games being played.

The article is an optimistic look at real estate in the Valley and the remarkable strength of our economy. He reminds us that despite the ongoing negative press, Arizonans should be proud: Forbes Magazine ranks us 3rd best city in America for jobs, Business 2.0 ranks us as a top destination city for relocation and CNN touts us as one of the top ten Megapolitans in the US.

Look for Jim's article is the real estate section of this week's Arizona Republic. I'd love to hear your feedback here on Urban Life.

Gene Urban
The Urban Team At Realty Executive